CMI’s Insight Paper argues that we are witnessing one of the most seismic changes in international relations in decades. Peace as a Power Play – Mediation in an Era of Disorder, authored by CEO Janne Taalas and Advisor Paula Olavinsilta, paints a bleak picture for peacemaking, but presents strategies for navigating a world of disorder.
In CMI’s latest Insight paper the authors write: “War has returned to the centre of international politics. Military force is increasingly used as an instrument for resolving political disputes. Armed conflicts are proliferating, military coups are spreading, and interstate confrontation is on the rise.”
The stark reality we are witness to amounts to one of the most profound shifts in international relations in decades, say the authors, adding that “major powers have shown a growing willingness to use force and tolerate violence perpetrated by their allies.”
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Peace as a Power Play – Mediation in an Era of Disorder
CMI CEO Janne Taalas and Advisor Paula Olavinsilta argue that the seismic changes we are witnessing in international relations have profound consequences for peacemaking.
This setting, they say, has drawn peacemaking directly into the centre of global politics, with this “new era of wars” making peacemaking more relevant than ever. “Demand has increased for credible mechanisms to de-escalate, contain, and ultimately end conflicts.”
Taalas and Olavinsilta point out that conflicts in Libya, Syria, Yemen, Sudan, and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, show how state-sponsored violence and internationalised wars have reshaped the mediation landscape.
Mediation, they say, is no longer a largely technical exercise focused on fragile states, but has become a very visible arena of power politics. They illustrate this with reference to the United States and China, which have established competing platforms for conflict resolution. This is about institutionalising their preferred methods of dispute settlement and project their respective worldviews, say the authors.
“Demand has increased for credible mechanisms to de-escalate, contain, and ultimately end conflicts.”
The authors argue that while the implications of the shifts are significant, managing these currents is possible with new strategies.
Mediators must sharpen their geopolitical awareness and engage more effectively with middle powers and new coalitions that increasingly shape outcomes, they say. Peace actors must better understand the growing role of economic statecraft – from sanctions to investment deals – and engage constructively with business actors.
On the question of economic interdependence, which they say increasingly underpins peacemaking, the authors point out that it can be both a force for good and bad. Inclusive dialogue must not be neglected, they argue. Even in a more transactional era, Track 2 and Track 1.5 processes remain essential for legitimacy and long-term sustainability.
For private actors such as CMI, the key strengths in this evolving environment are agility, connectivity and analytical openness. The authors call this a defining moment for the peacemaking community: a time to resist fragmentation, invest in collaboration and remain grounded in core principles of inclusivity and local ownership.
CMI’s Insight offers a timely analysis and practical recommendations for those operating in today’s turbulent conflict landscape. It invites readers to explore in greater depth how mediation can remain effective in an era of transactional peacemaking.